Everyone in politics knows the phrase that was coined in ‘992 by James Carvil, the political mastermind of then-Arkansas Governor and presidential candidates Bill Clinton: “It’s the Economy, Stupid.” This meant to say to voters, ‘don’t get distracted by other issues. The economy is the problem now, so vote in Clinton for President.’
This phrase 17 years later is still relevant from a political and economic perspective, becouse when debating these days Reaganomics, the Left points to the weakened economy of under Bush the First, and when debating “political strategies” some point to that “”masterful” phrase which “propelled Clinton into the White House.” Both, however, are the longest-standing economic and political myths that I have ever seen.
Consider some facts:
A) In March of ‘991, the U.S. economy was officially out of recession. In English it means, that nineteen months before Clinton won the election, the economy (GDP) was actually growing again, following a very short and light recession.
B) You can claim that the GDP growth at the time didn’t translate into prosperity to people. Well, first, at least the economy was growing; it wasn’t in a recession as some try to believe until today. Secondly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which in the current Stimulus Economy is a gage for success or failure, grew from a recession low of 2,398 in the week of October ‘990, to a high of 3,398 in the week of June first 1992. (The Dow didn’t have a disasters fallback as we had starting last year September, so it was not shooting radically upwards like we experience in recent months, nut it had a healthy growth).
C) Seeing that the GDP and the Dow are not friendly to this “economy stupid” myth, you will turn to jobs. “Jobs growth is what counts in a REAL recovery.” Fine, let’s count jobs: In the last six months of Bush’s ‘992, the economy gained on a monthly average 129,000 jobs, and in the first half of ‘993, the monthly average was 208,000. Considering that jobs are a “lagging indicator,” meaning they lag the rest of the economy, it is fair to say that the healthy job growth (plus the declining Unemployment Rate) of the second half of ‘992 and the robust job growth of early ‘993, reflected a turned-around, BOOMING economy that started months before Team Clinton had its election night plans ready. While I am at it, get this: the last six months of Clinton’s ’00, the economy gained a poor monthly average of 100K, and the following half year the economy lost 73,000 jobs on a monthly basis, which confirms again that GW Bush inherited a recession, whereas Bill Clinton inherited a booming economy.
D) Politically speaking, Bill Clinton won a poor 43% of the popular vote in ‘992, one of the weakest showings for an outside candidate, yet he still won the election, due to a third party candidate – Ross Perot running to the Right of Bush – picking up 18% of the popular vote, leaving Bush with just 37% of the vote. In other words, Carvil’s phrase resonated with only a small portion of the population, as we see that Clinton got only 43% of the vote, of which a big chunk were African Americans who regularly vote 9-10 for Presidential Democrats, regardless the state of general affairs.
