Yossi Gestetner

The State of Israel made it clear in recent days that “all options are on the table” regarding the issue of Iran. By using the “all options are on the table” line, Israel is signaling that it is still considering using force to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.

If Israel wants to send it commandoes to do the job, then they might succeed. I say so from ignorance, meaning that I don’t know the capabilities of Israel’s elite forces relative to disrupting a well-advanced, well protected nuclear program hundreds of miles away from Israel. However, a flyover strike on Iran similar to the ‘981 attack on Iraq or similar to the attack on Syria a few years ago, is close to impossible for Israel to pull off, therefore I say: this option stays on the table in forms of written plans; it won’t be executed in reality, certainly if Israel goes at it alone.

Some readers probably know the answers, but those who don’t know, here is some food for thought:

First thing is distance. Attacking Syria with a few fighter jets was a walk in the park. Syria is in Israel’s back yard; it’s an in-and-out mission. Iraq, which is further away, was a much more difficult task. The Israeli military back in ‘981 used every trick in the book to burn as little fuel possible to make sure that the strike team of fighter jets can return before they run out of fuel. When it comes to Iran, the distance is a few hundred miles farther from Israel, making it more difficult to reach, if Israel goes at it alone. If Israel gets the support from the U.S. to refuel in Iraq, or gets flyover rights (plus refueling help) from other countries in that region, then it is a different story. However, you likely have a better chance of winning $1,000,000 in a scratch off lottery then one of the above taking place.

Second thing is the actual program. In ‘981, Israel took out a nuclear reactor, nothing more than that. It’s a tall structure that became worthless with the minimal use of firepower. Whereas Iran has now a more advanced, well-spread out system, that needs more fire power to place it out of service, making it more difficult for Israel to just fly in-and-out to attack.

Third is protection. Iran is more protected than Syria and Iraq were at the time of them being attacked. Iran has built up its defenses with the support from Russia, which means it will likely be more difficult to intrude in their airspace than those of Iraq’s I ‘981. Furthermore, even once in Iran, the nuclear sites are believed to be well-protected with anti-missile technology, and as most believe: most of Iran’s nuclear program is buried deep underground under protective roofing.

Fourth is retaliation. Let alone the fact that following an attack, Iran will certainly inflame terror groups to carry out attacks on Israel. Iran on their own will very likely try taking revenge through using some of its missile capabilities against Israel.

The Israeli leadership, current and past, knows all these facts, and this is why the talk of attacking Iran “just as Israel did to Iraq in ‘981” goes on for years with no action taking. The cards are stacked against Israel if they want to use the ‘981 tactic.